Dynasty Trade Values

The trades. A crawler reads public Sleeper and MFL dynasty leagues and records every completed two-team trade: the players and rookie picks each side got, plus any FAAB. Leagues only complete trades both managers accept, so each player and pick gets the value that makes the trades people made come out as even as possible. The last 90 days count, and a trade from three weeks ago counts half as much as one from today.

Picks. A pick is priced by its year and round. Rounds after the 4th are pooled, because they rarely trade on their own. A pick only shows once it has been traded at least ten times.

Why there is a starting point. An accepted trade only says two sides were about even, never that one player is worth more than another. Fit on trades alone, every value slides toward the same number. So each player starts from his points per game above a waiver pickup over a full healthy season, and trades decide how far he moves from there. A heavily traded player is set almost entirely by his trades. A rarely traded one stays near his starting point. We also tested adding an age bonus to the starting point; it only stays in when it improves the fit on held-out trades.

Superflex and 1QB. Separate leagues, separate fits. Quarterbacks are worth far more where you can start two.

What it isn't. Not a projection for this season. For that, use the rest-of-season rankings, which only read redraft trades.